On current prices, house prices and the stock market

 On current prices, house prices and the stock market and capital market
Fudan Financial Director of the Centre Professor Xie Baisan
First, the inflation may be the most difficult to control since the founding of the first occurred in China since
five times inflation.
1949-1950, this is the end of hyperinflation before liberation; 1959-1961, three years hard times, a large number of unnatural death of the male labor force, causing shortage of supply, price increases; 1985, price reform mass start, was suppressed for many years as prices exploded like a volcano; 1994-1996, the market economy, the investment boom triggered a new round of inflation.
(1997-2002 years, the emergence of a five-year deflation) And now this one is very special, it is neither the usual demand-pull type (kind of inflation is more fierce, to something else); it is not caused by serious natural disasters, war and hyperinflation; it is a hybrid of inflation: input type plus additional structural cost-push inflation.
input: the appreciation of the renminbi, to 2007, for example, 1.3 billion dollars every day through the channels of trade and hot money into China. China must be more than 100 billion RMB to buy down, the situation is still ongoing; RMB appreciation has been broken, credit crisis will lead to global loss of over one trillion U.S. dollars, U.S. dollar rates, M2 supply continued to enlarge. it the yen has fallen $ 1 for 101 yen (the exchange rate was close to 1994-1995). renminbi deposits now 4.14% interest rate, compound interest rate in China is also very high long-term bonds, or about 4.5%, and combined it with the devaluation of the RMB is still among parity, etc., the annual depreciation of about 6-8%, then into RMB, which a hundred cost-effective.
Now influx of foreign currency are still. Although recovered through most of central bank bills, etc., but these will expire after the central ticket, but the more violent the inflation to be postponed. But in any case, the total There are some beyond recovery, making it difficult to press down the inflation.
In addition, a weaker dollar, world prices Zhangshengyipian, especially food, agricultural products, oil, gold and so on. foreign price increases will introduced to China through the import and export trade.'s closed-door policy in China is not, nor is it the era of planned economy, inflation countries in various ways and channels into China.
In addition, the inflation cost-push factors as well. First labor rights, and actual results could escape from China will force businesses to allow workers to the unemployment rate to increase. This is a two-party system in the West to go, the European high-wage, high benefit of the road. worsened the investment environment in China, from the strategic see is too early, too does not meet the conditions, and with Deng Xiaoping's theory completely out of line.)
third is structural inflation:
China is still the demand and supply of most commodities, or surplus, only a small part of the product in short supply, such as pork, rose, fish, chicken, eggs, not up. and coal, copper rose, some ferrous metals, nonferrous metals, not up.
In short, the hybrid inflation is mainly due to depreciation of the dollar, the RMB due to the appreciation.
for different types of inflation should have different treatment methods. like this input type, cost-push inflation and structural mixed, with the original extension of the old method of taking a very tight monetary policy to pressure forever? difficult. fully pressed down, inevitably hurt the real economy and employment in China's major events, but also will bring the Chinese stock market even worse.'d rather the implementation of wage indexation, it can not destroy the economy.
Second, the Shanghai housing prices rise suddenly mm Peoples attention
in people unknowingly, the Shanghai housing prices actually rose suddenly in the month 15-19%; and volume significantly enlarged; particularly good location (such as Lujiazui, Xujiahui, Nanjing Road area) and good house, some six months rose to 60,000 yuan from 40,000 / sq m, is stunned, caught off guard.
specific reasons for the Shanghai commercial banks on the mortgage, the policy to the extent permitted relaxed. Practice has proved that foreign countries: 30% down payment mortgage is the safest, lowest default rates of high-quality loans. China's commercial banks suffered so many foreign trade enterprises of deposit, how can it not find a good loan customers.
So Shanghai good real estate rose up relentlessly, the other rooms also rose up the middle and low.
Now to figure out is just one place up in Shanghai, or the new round of comprehensive national real estate prices in the precursor. U.S. The real estate market is down with the country, cities, only New York real estate in the rise. more than a decade has been rising. Shanghai is China's New York.
and Guangzhou, Shenzhen and the real deal and fell 15-20%. the situation in rural and small urban real estate mostly did not rise, or even down, as the rural concerned that the price increase of 8%, the interest rate is 4.14%, this does not buy the house hedge it? Therefore, they think: a new round of rising real estate and began.
However,cheap UGG boots, there is still considerable number of people did not dare to real estate, because rental rates are too unreasonable. prices kept rising, a house in 2001 rose to 70 million of the 2.2 million; but the rent of 4,000 yuan, but also pay taxes. and This 2.2 million records of bank receipts of up to 8.8-9 million years, the.
So, either prices fall down, or rents go up. This is the top of the stock market away from ah! this, we are paying close attention and research .
Third, the stock market in search for balanced regional
stage signs have proved that the management does not want to stock market falls. In more than 6000 points, some said, to prevent Some said that to expand the proportion of tradable shares. in fact, to control and suppress the stock market. Now the old newspapers blowing warm air, the Fund for many a firing; any positive publicity have been amplified,Discount UGG boots, such as the Industrial and Commercial Bank first quarter results a good start to big blow a pass. (China Merchants Bank's performance, but really good. But for traffic next month, taking into account the large number of small non-banks and strategic investors to market, will likely drag down the prices of banking stocks, bought CMB does fit. )
However, in anticipation of a rescue operation did not come out, for example: stock index futures, margin trading, down stamp duty, restricted flow, and so a large non-excessive.
I think, also feel on top difficult, not now to save, to save a meeting on the eve of the Olympic Games have to save. the Olympics before and after the meeting, to stabilize the financial markets; this is set out. Now in April to save, go up. to that at the meeting down, how to do.
regardless of or a escaped 40%, 60% will be rallies out there. Therefore, the drop is never seen in our history of institutional changes and major bear market, the standards must not be used to determine the general bear market. This year 110 000 000 000 shares size of Africa, 660 billion next year, non-stock size, as long as you have the confidence to carrying. now suddenly realized the value of Buffett's investment law that set the current exception of a few individual stocks,UGGs, but for most of China's stock not suitable.
long-term investment to possible long-term lock-in. because Buffett United States where there is no stock change, there is no issue of size. At present, China's stock market is looking carefully balanced regional stage, the stock market is likely to enter strategic stalemate.
addition, four - billion shares of new shares and firm to the earth. This shows that management did not believe that any stock market crash occurred. They are not afraid of falling, fear of steep decline. but they certainly do not want to fall any further.
four, two stock trading strategy and style, there are two major stock market is doing now
strategy and style:
one point to escape from 6000-5000-4500, a number of strategic investors refused to immediately return to the stock market, they believe the bull market rose a few years to adjust will last longer. especially large and small non-strategic investors are still pouring out, to wait for to enter. (unless the individual good stocks have had the opportunity, in general, not be considered. But the majority of stocks will drift with the broader market; If you look at the United States and Hong Kong stock market, you will find that there's some good stocks too cheap a.)
second is to insist that there is a chance the stock market, adhere to good growth companies in the cast buy low, sell high. They (such as Mr. Lin Yuan, etc.) insists that the market's fluctuations are unpredictable, but the stocks are has a chance. I grow a graduate student in a blue-chip stocks rolling operation, this wave of bear market has been doing the band, has lucrative. I listened to sigh.
I believe that: The key is personal the overall level of the individual personality, individual psychological qualities, operational experience on the stock market. If mental capacity is poor,UGG bailey button, it should be band in all out of the whole; and better in all aspects, you can use the second strategy and style. but the first two methods, style it is very difficult, and a considerable number of people actually do against, and in fact often buys high and sells low. We can look at themselves in the actual operating results for 1-2 years to determine their own strategy and style.
2008 年 4 11 afternoon 3:30
in Ningbo Yuyao Siming Mountain